Kamala Harris’ Chances of Winning Swing States Amid North Carolina Gains

North Carolina is now a toss-up between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, according to new polling, while Minnesota and New Hampshire have shifted to likely Democrat states.
The Cook Political Report announced Tuesday that it was shifting North Carolina, which former President Donald Trump won in 2020 by roughly 1.3 percent, from “leans Republican” to a “tossup” state in its latest 2024 election forecast.
“Since the beginning of this cycle, Democrats were confident that President Joe Biden could win North Carolina. Its demographic profile as an ethnically diverse and rapidly suburbanizing state looks similar to other former Republican-leaning Sun Belt states that Democrats have flipped over the last few cycles, like Georgia, Arizona and Virginia. Moreover, Donald Trump won North Carolina by just over one point in 2020, his smallest margin of victory in any state that year,” Cook Political Report Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter wrote.
However, “Biden was never able to keep this race close,” she added. “By the time he dropped out of the race in late July, the president was trailing Trump by almost seven points.”
But Since Harris has become the candidate, the Democrats’ prospects have reversed, and North Carolina now looks “more competitive than ever,” according to Walter. The most recent 538 and RealClearPolitics polling averages show Harris and Trump in a dead heat.
“In other words, North Carolina is now a toss-up,” she said.
FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker shows that Trump is currently 0.3 points ahead of Harris, on 45.8 percent to her 45.5 percent, while the RealClearPolitics polling average shows he is 0.6 points ahead, on 45.3 percent to Harris’ 44.7 percent.
Last week, Harris briefly overtook Trump in North Carolina, leading him by 0.2 points, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Walters noted that Harris’ success on North Carolina has been driven by “increasing her margins with Democrats (+13), Black voters (+4) and independent voters (+13).”
“The Trump campaign can’t afford to let North Carolina slip,” Walter said. “If Harris were to win just North Carolina and the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, she could afford to lose every other competitive Sun Belt state — Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona — and still win the Electoral College vote.”
Meanwhile, Harris’ prospects have also improved in other swing states.
Minnesota and New Hampshire
The Cook Political Report shifted Minnesota and New Hampshire from “lean” to “likely” Democratic states in their latest forecast after polling conducted before Joe Biden dropped out showed the two states were too close to call.
For example, in late June, a St. Anselm College Survey showed Trump narrowly edging Biden in New Hampshire — 44 percent to 42 percent. A mid-August St. Anselm poll put Harris ahead by seven points — 51 percent to 44 percent.
A similar trend has occurred in Minnesota. A May SurveyUSA poll showed Biden leading Trump by just two points. Meanwhile, the late July poll by SurveyUSA—taken before Minnesota Governor Tim Walz’s confirmation as Harris’s running mate—found Harris leading Trump by 10 points.
FiveThirtyEight’s polling shows Harris leading Trump by 7.1 points in New Hampshire, on 50. 2 percent to his 43.1 percent. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows she is 5 points ahead.
In Minnesota, Harris is 8.9 points ahead, according to 538, on 49.1 percent to Trump’s 40.2 percent. RealClearPolitics shows Harris is 8 points ahead.
FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model shows the Democrats are predicted to win both states in November by between 6 and 8 points.
Pennsylvania
Polling shows Pennsylvania is set to be a close race, with Harris 1.6 points ahead of Trump, according to 538’s polling average. Meanwhile, according to RealClearPolitics, Trump is 0.2 points ahead in the race, after the 3 most recent polls, by InsiderAdvantage, Ramussen Reports and Emerson College put him 1 point ahead.
Other recent polls by Quinnipiac and the New York Times and Sienna College have shown Harris leading by between 3 and 4 points.
Before Biden dropped out, Trump was 4.5 points ahead of him, according to RealClearPolitics.
FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model shows the Democrats are predicted to win the state by a 1.5 point margin.
Wisconsin
Harris is currently 3.6 points ahead in Wisconsin, according to 538, on 47.8 percent to Trump’s 44.2 percent.
Every poll conducted since August 1 has shown Harris in the lead in the state. Before Biden dropped out, Trump was leading in Wisconsin by at least 3 points, according to polling averages.
RealClearPolitics shows Harris is leading Trump by 1 point in the state, on 48 percent to his 47 percent. The Democrats are projected to secure a victory in Wisconsin, according to 538.
Michigan
In Michigan, Harris is 3 points ahead of her opponent, according to 538, on 46.6 percent to his 43.6 percent.
RealClearPolitics shows Harris is leading Trump by 2 points after Trump was leading Biden by the same margin before Biden ended his reelection campaign.
The Democrats are projected to win in Michigan by a margin on 2.9 points, according to 538’s forecast model.
Every poll conducted since August 6 in the state has shown Harris leading by a margin of 2 to 8 points.
Arizona
Arizona is set to be close, with FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker showing Harris is leading by 0.8 points. That is down from 1.4 points last week.
Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics shows Trump is leading in the state by 0.5 points, on 47.3 percent to Harris’ 46.8 percent. The three most recent polls in the state, conducted by Noble Predictive Insights, Focaldata and Redfield and Wilton Strategies show Trump leading by between 1 and 4 points.
However, the RealClearPolitics poll tracker shows Trump’s lead in the state has narrowed since Biden dropped out, from 4.2 points to 0.5 points.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Democrats are predicted to win by 0.9 points in Arizona.
Nevada
Harris is currently 0.5 points ahead in Nevada, on 44.9 percent to Trump’s 44.4 percent.
Nevada has voted for the Democrats in the last four presidential elections. But that looked poised to change before Harris entered the race, with Trump leading Biden by up to 20 points in all but two polls conducted in the state since the beginning of the year.
However, since Harris entered the race, multiple polls have shown Harris and Trump tied or Harris in the lead by between 2 and 7 points among likely voters in Nevada. However, other polls have shown Trump in the lead by between 1 and 5 points.
The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump is leading by 1.4 points.
Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s latest forecast shows that the Democrats are expected to win Nevada by 0.8 points.
Georgia
Trump is 0.7 points ahead in Georgia, according to 538’s polling average, on 46.6 percent to Harris’ 45.9 percent.
RealClearPolitics shows the former President is 1 point ahead in the state.
However, polls shows his lead has decreased since Harris entered the race, with polls conducted between July 22 and July 24 suggesting the former president was up by as much as 5 points in the state, and in a poll published by Insider Advantage on July 16, Trump held a 10-point lead among likely voters in a head-to-head matchup with Harris.
Before Biden dropped out, Trump was 4 points ahead, according to RealClearPolitics.
But despite having his lead cut by Harris, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows Trump will secure a 0.6-point victory in Georgia, which Biden flipped to blue in 2020 after the state had voted Republican in the previous six presidential elections.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.